The WNBA Playoffs start today, with the top 4 seeded teams enjoying home court advantage. A season filled with a record number of ACL injuries, some interesting trades, record-breaking performances, and a playoff berth that came down to the wire has been very exciting to watch. I made some pre-season predictions, some of which I will now have to eat, and I’m back with some post-season thoughts. At the end of the day, there can only be one championship team, and I’m betting on the….

Atlanta Dream. I know the Lynx and the Aces are likely the favorites to win it all, but hear me out: I don’t care. I think the Dream have shown toughness when key players have had injuries, and Karl Smesko has been a calm, steady leader of the team. The home court advantage will play in their favor, and experiencing their first post-season win since 2018 could give them the momentum that will take them to the top. Seeing them play the Aces in the second round will break my heart, but I am confident they will do what needs to be done.

It didn’t take long for the Phoenix Mercury to become one of my 3 favorite teams to watch this season, alongside the Dream and the Storm. That’s for a few reasons:

I originally counted them out of playoff contention, and that was a mistake. I’m fully on team AT for MVP, though. This Mercury team is coming into the playoffs with a completely different look than last year, and I think they’ll make it pretty deep into the postseason. Once they clinched their playoff spot in the top 4, Nate Tibbets started giving Kahlani Brown, Kiana Williams, and Kitija Laksa more play time. On paper, they lost their last 3 games. In reality, he got to have high-effort, low-stakes practice sessions with his reserve that will potentially serve them well in the playoffs. He also got to rest Dewanna Bonner and Alyssa Thomas quite a bit, two players who will be vital going down the stretch. The Mercury have the season series lead over the Liberty and home court advantage, so I’m betting on them to win the first round.

I bought the Stew York cap for Breanna Stewart’s birthday, but I think the defending champs have some soul-searching to do. Granted, they did pick up Natasha Cloud, so they’ve done a good job so far, but it feels like something is missing. With many of their key players missing long stretches of the season, it’s fortunate that they seem to be healthy at just the right time. Are they healthy enough for the chemistry to click? We’ll see.

The Golden State Valkyries have outperformed every former statistic regarding expansion teams, and they have Natalie Nakase and a roster full of hardworking women to thank. Not only are they in the playoffs, but they have one of the highest home game attendance records of the season and are one of the highest valued teams in the league. They invested in such incredible front office staff that new expansion teams are poaching them left and right. They’ve set the precedent for what investment, hiring, coaching, and brand identity can achieve in the WNBA, and I can’t wait to see them in year 2. I’m not sure I’m convinced they’ll get swept by the Lynx, but I don’t think they’ll make it past round 1.

The Lynx have had some interesting losses this season. It often looked as if they were beaten mentally, and their performance would follow. They can’t allow referee calls to affect their physicality. Easier said than done, likely. I think their pickup of Dijonai Carrington was smart, and will continue to give them a boost offensively. She also allows the team to play more freely, thriving in transition offense, which will be fun to watch (and hard to stop).

The Storm and the Fever join the Valkyries in the underdog category. However, there’s a pretty big difference between the Storm and the Fever: the Fever have had so many injuries it’s been unreal, and the Storm… well, they’ve just been inconsistent. They’ll beat the Lynx one game, then lose to the Sun the next. They had a great pickup in acquiring Brittany “Slim” Sykes at the deadline, which I think was a great move. And Erica Wheeler has repeatedly been a highlight on the team, balancing great decision-making and great play-making. I don’t want to see any team get swept, but inconsistency doesn’t magically make for a championship win (and they face the Aces again in the first round).

Last but not least, let’s talk about the dominance in the room. The Las Vegas Aces finish the season with a 15-game win streak. Previous teams that have accomplished this feat have gone on to win it all. Why do I think this team will do any differently? Cheyanne Parker-Tyus is back from maternity leave, and Nalyssa Smith is back from concussion protocol, giving them some incredible post-presence depth. Nalyssa is arguably the most consequential trade of the 2025 season. They seemingly have all the pieces to make another championship run. And maybe they will. But I’ll always root for the underdog, and this Atlanta team is poised to take home its first trophy.

P.S. Wishing all teams an injury-free postseason.